Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
