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Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.